⛽ India Fuel & EV Transition ← Back to Portfolio

India's Petrol Dependency & EV Transition

Does petrol demand predict where EVs are taking hold — or not?

40M

tonnes petrol consumed 2024–25

3.6×

national growth since 2008–09

53 kg

highest per capita (Kerala)

4.7%

highest EV penetration (Uttar Pradesh)*

📌 India's petrol consumption grew 3.6× in 16 years — from 11M tonnes in 2008–09 to 40M tonnes in 2024–25. The 10 states shown account for ~70% of national demand.
🔁 The UP Paradox: UP is #1 in absolute consumption (4,833 '000 MT) but ranks #10 per capita (20.1 kg/person) — its 241M population dilutes the figure heavily. Kerala flips the other way: #8 absolute, #1 per capita (52.6 kg/person). A Keralite consumes 2.6× more petrol than a UP resident.

Quadrant Summary

Transitioning — Karnataka
Leapfrogging — Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan
Fuel Dependent — Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Kerala, Telangana
Low Mobility — Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh
⚠️ UP caveat: UP's 4.7% EV penetration is dominated by e-rickshaws — a very different vehicle category from petrol cars. Removing e-rickshaws would likely place UP in the "Low Mobility" quadrant, not "Leapfrogging." This distinction matters for policy: e-rickshaw electrification and 4-wheeler EV adoption require completely different interventions.

Andhra Pradesh

1,627'000 MT (Rank #10 absolute)
30.7 kgper capita (Rank #7)
1.1%EV penetration (180K EVs)
Low Mobilityquadrant

Population: 53.0M · Total vehicles: 16M
Moderate

Gujarat

2,701'000 MT (Rank #5 absolute)
38.3 kgper capita (Rank #5)
1.1%EV penetration (260K EVs)
Fuel Dependentquadrant

Population: 70.5M · Total vehicles: 24M
Policy-led adoption

Karnataka

3,054'000 MT (Rank #4 absolute)
44.9 kgper capita (Rank #3)
1.6%EV penetration (420K EVs)
Transitioningquadrant

Population: 68.0M · Total vehicles: 26M
Led by Bengaluru tech corridor

Kerala

1,879'000 MT (Rank #8 absolute)
52.6 kgper capita (Rank #1)
0.9%EV penetration (130K EVs)
Fuel Dependentquadrant

Population: 35.7M · Total vehicles: 14M
State EV incentives active

Madhya Pradesh

1,955'000 MT (Rank #7 absolute)
22.5 kgper capita (Rank #9)
1.1%EV penetration (200K EVs)
Low Mobilityquadrant

Population: 87.0M · Total vehicles: 18M
Emerging adoption

Maharashtra

4,371'000 MT (Rank #2 absolute)
33.4 kgper capita (Rank #6)
1.5%EV penetration (530K EVs)
Leapfroggingquadrant

Population: 130.8M · Total vehicles: 35M
Urban 4W adoption

Rajasthan

2,036'000 MT (Rank #6 absolute)
24.8 kgper capita (Rank #8)
1.6%EV penetration (350K EVs)
Leapfroggingquadrant

Population: 82.0M · Total vehicles: 22M
E-rickshaw heavy

Tamil Nadu

3,534'000 MT (Rank #3 absolute)
43.6 kgper capita (Rank #4)
0.9%EV penetration (280K EVs)
Fuel Dependentquadrant

Population: 81.0M · Total vehicles: 30M
Industrial base

Telangana

1,801'000 MT (Rank #9 absolute)
45.0 kgper capita (Rank #2)
1.1%EV penetration (130K EVs)
Fuel Dependentquadrant

Population: 40.0M · Total vehicles: 12M
Hyderabad-led

Uttar Pradesh

4,833'000 MT (Rank #1 absolute)
20.1 kgper capita (Rank #10)
4.7%EV penetration (2100K EVs)
Leapfroggingquadrant

Population: 241.0M · Total vehicles: 45M
Dominated by e-rickshaws

What this project does

Applies a per-capita normalisation to India's state-wise petrol consumption data and overlays EV adoption rates to identify which states are most fuel-dependent and which are transitioning away from petrol.

Data Sources

DatasetSourceNotes
State petrol consumption 2024–25PPAC Annual Report / India Radar infographicTop 10 states only
National consumption trend 2008–2025PPAC historical dataIntermediate years are estimates
State population 2024Census 2011 + projected growth ratesEstimates, not official 2024 census
EV registrations by stateVahan Dashboard (vahan.parivahan.gov.in)Approximate, cumulative as of early 2025
EV penetration %Derived: EVs / total registered vehiclesSubject to Vahan data completeness

Key Metrics Defined

  • Per capita petrol consumption = (state consumption in metric tonnes) / (state population) × 1000 → kg/person/year
  • EV penetration = (cumulative EV registrations) / (total registered vehicles) × 100
  • Quadrant = assigned based on whether state is above/below the median across all 10 states for each metric

Honest Limitations

  • Dataset covers only the top 10 petrol-consuming states — the remaining ~18 states are excluded
  • Population figures are 2024 projections, not census counts (next census pending)
  • UP's EV figure is dominated by e-rickshaws — a different electrification pathway from 4-wheeler EVs used in other states; direct comparison with Karnataka or Maharashtra is misleading
  • EV penetration % conflates vehicle categories (2W, 3W, 4W) — a 4-wheeler-only analysis would tell a different story
  • National trend data uses PPAC anchor points for 2008–09 and 2024–25; intermediate years are interpolated estimates

Next Steps

  • Add remaining states for a complete India picture
  • Split EV data by vehicle category (2W / 3W / 4W) to remove e-rickshaw distortion
  • Layer in fuel price data — do price spikes correlate with EV adoption spikes?
  • Add GDP/GSDP per capita to test whether income or urbanisation better predicts EV adoption